{"id":776,"date":"2012-05-31T19:20:56","date_gmt":"2012-05-31T17:20:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alanamoceri.live-website.com\/unas-palabras-sobre-las-encuestas-de-campanas-presidenciales-en-eeuu\/"},"modified":"2012-05-31T19:20:56","modified_gmt":"2012-05-31T17:20:56","slug":"unas-palabras-sobre-las-encuestas-de-campanas-presidenciales-en-eeuu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alanamoceri.com\/es\/unas-palabras-sobre-las-encuestas-de-campanas-presidenciales-en-eeuu\/","title":{"rendered":"Unas palabras sobre las encuestas de campa\u00f1as presidenciales en EE.UU."},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em>La pregunta del <a href=\"http:\/\/internacional.elpais.com\/internacional\/2012\/05\/30\/eldebate\/1338399056_523118.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Debate Internacional de El Pais<\/a> de hoy ha sido: \u00bfTiene posibilidades Romney de ganar a Obama?<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Voy a aprovechar de esta pregunta muy b\u00e1sico y abierto para explicar algo sobre las encuestas de campa\u00f1as presidenciales en EE.UU. (1) Tanto all\u00ed como aqu\u00ed, una encuesta 6 meses antes de la elecci\u00f3n, no tiene mucho peso. Los tendencias tras meses o incluso semanas nos dice algo, pero aparte de eso, no tienen mucho valor. (2) En EE.UU., se gane la Casa Blanca por superar a 270 votos electorales, no por el voto popular. Y como sabemos de la elecci\u00f3n de 2000, es posible ganar el voto popular el perder la elecci\u00f3n. Entonces, para una indicaci\u00f3n mucho m\u00e1s precisa\u2014y de que se informe las decisiones de las campa\u00f1as\u2014es el mapa electoral. En la mayor\u00eda de los estados, el candidato que gane la mayor\u00eda de los votos, gane todos los votos electorales (winner takes all). Por eso, no gastan muchos recursos en estados \u201cs\u00f3lidos\u201d como California (Dem\u00f3crata) y Texas (Republicano) sino los indecisos como Ohio y Florida o menos s\u00f3lidos como Pennsylvania y Arizona. The Washington Post <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/wp-srv\/special\/politics\/election-map-2012\/president\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">tiene uno que muestra bien la panorama electoral de 2012<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La pregunta del Debate Internacional de El Pais de hoy ha sido: \u00bfTiene posibilidades Romney de ganar a Obama?<br \/>\n &#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"understrap-read-more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/alanamoceri.com\/es\/unas-palabras-sobre-las-encuestas-de-campanas-presidenciales-en-eeuu\/\">Read The Article <span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> from Unas palabras sobre las encuestas de campa\u00f1as presidenciales en EE.UU.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2948,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-776","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - 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